Canada · Demand
End-use electricity demand was 567 TWh in 2023 (CER, from petajoules). That is not the planning number in Ontario (IESO 2026 APO: 152 TWh net in 2026, 250 TWh in 2050). The official outlooks do not agree, and they should not be averaged. Demand vs capacity →
CER’s Current Measures path takes national generation from 622 TWh (2023) to 975 TWh (2050). The Higher path, which leans into data centres and LNG, is 1,156 TWh. Net-zero is 1,323 TWh. NRCan’s 2026 strategy paper says the system must roughly double. That is a planning slogan consistent with the top of this fan, not with the Lower scenario (865 TWh).
| Jurisdiction | End-use TWh | Generated TWh | Load character |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 61.4 | 56.2 | Winter-peaking hydro system. Reservoirs on the Peace and Columbia are the storage. Drought years bite. |
| Alberta | 76.3 | 84.1 | Winter-peaking, industrial. Oil sands and bitumen cogen are a large fraction of both load and supply. Per-capita electricity use is high (17.9 MWh in 2020). |
| Saskatchewan | 21.4 | 24.9 | Vertically integrated Crown |
| Manitoba | 22.0 | 33.4 | Vertically integrated Crown |
| Ontario | 138.5 | 158.1 | Summer-peaking historically; winter peak is rising with heat pumps. Data centres and industrial electrification are the new adequacy problem. |
| Quebec | 209.5 | 195.5 | Winter-peaking. Electric space heating plus aluminum and other industrial load. Highest electricity use per capita in Canada (22.9 MWh in 2020). |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 10.0 | 44.3 | Vertically integrated Crown |
| New Brunswick | 13.7 | 13.9 | Vertically integrated Crown |
| Nova Scotia | 10.1 | 9.1 | Investor-owned, regulated (Emera / NS Power) |
| Prince Edward Island | 1.9 | 0.6 | Investor-owned, regulated (Maritime Electric / Fortis) |
| Yukon | 0.7 | 0.6 | Isolated northern hydro + thermal |
| Northwest Territories | 0.7 | 0.7 | Isolated northern systems |
| Nunavut | 0.2 | 0.2 | Diesel microgrids |
End-use electricity converted from PJ ÷ 3.6. Generation and end-use are not the same thing. Source: CER EF2026.
Oil sands electrification, LNG Canada and the north-coast stack, data centres in Ontario and Quebec, critical-minerals mines, and heat-pump winter peaks are the five demand stories that will rewrite the next edition of every IRP. They are not evenly distributed. They are why Alberta’s island and Ontario’s nuclear calendar matter more than a national TWh.
2050 end-use electricity under Current Measures: 814 TWh. Under Canada Net-zero: 1,042 TWh.