QC · Vertically integrated Crown · 2023
A winter-peaking reservoir-hydro exporter that is no longer in structural surplus. Rates remain a political instrument. The 17 August 2026 Churchill Falls agreement replaces 1969; Hertel–New York is already moving 1,250 MW into Manhattan.
| 2023 | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation TWh | 195.5 | 213.2 | 222.7 | 221.4 | 257.4 |
| End-use electricity TWh | 209.5 | 205.3 | 211.7 | 223.1 | 254.1 |
| Capacity GW | 46.9 | 48.3 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 68.4 |
| Gen − end-use TWh | -14.0 | 7.9 | 11.1 | -1.7 | 3.2 |
Same workbook for every jurisdiction. Residual ≠ surplus. Source: CER EF2026.
Quebec used more electricity per person than any other jurisdiction in 2020 — 57% above the Canadian average — because space heat is electric and because aluminum, pulp, and other electro-intensive industry sit on cheap heritage hydro. End-use electricity already exceeds in-province generation (CER 2023: 210 TWh used vs 196 TWh generated); the gap is Churchill Falls in-flow, not a modelling error. Action Plan 2035 is a tightness plan: add 8–9 GW / ~60 TWh in Québec, spend $10 billion on efficiency, and $155–185 billion of capex through 2035. Data centres and industrial electrification are in the load, not in a footnote.
Winter-peaking. Electric space heating plus aluminum and other industrial load. Highest electricity use per capita in Canada (22.9 MWh in 2020).
Rate D is among the lowest residential tariffs in North America. CER (Mar 2026) places Quebec at the cheap end of the $83–$375 / 1,000 kWh national range.
Hydro-Québec: Action Plan 2035 + DCIA (17 Aug 2026) (2026-08-17)
Québec is no longer in structural surplus every year. 2023 drought cut exports. Action Plan 2035 is a build-and-efficiency programme because domestic load (heat, industry, data centres) is catching heritage hydro. The 17 August 2026 Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement replaces the 1969 Churchill Falls contract: 6,915 MW firm to 2077 at 6¢/kWh, Gull Island (2,700 MW, ~12 TWh, target 2036–37), Churchill Falls upgrades (about 1,275 MW on existing units, expansion up to 2,500 MW), and 2,000 MW of Labrador wind under study. New Labrador MW are announced/agreed, not operating. Combined construction value cited at nearly $70B, with up to $10B federal support.
HQ plans in MW and TWh of additional supply, not a published annual demand table comparable to IESO. Québec end-use already exceeds in-province generation because of Churchill Falls in-flows. Primary document
In CER Energy Future 2023-history (the 2023 year of EF2026), Quebec generated 196 TWh, 94% hydro and about 5% wind. Installed hydro is on the order of 41 GW, including Robert-Bourassa (5,616 MW), the largest generating station in Canada. The Romaine complex (1,550 MW) finished with Romaine-4 in 2023. Wind is the second fuel; Seigneurie de Beaupré (364 MW) and Rivière-du-Moulin (350 MW) are the two largest wind farms in the country. Hydro-Québec owns the big hydro; independents own essentially all the wind and biomass. Diesel remains in remote communities.
Fifteen-plus interconnections link Quebec to Ontario, the Maritimes, New York, and New England. Pre-2026 transfer capability: New York ~1,999 MW, ISO-NE ~2,270 MW, Ontario 1,970 MW, New Brunswick 1,029 MW (NRCan 2026). On top of that, Hertel–New York / Champlain Hudson Power Express (1,250 MW) entered commercial operation in May 2026; Hydro-Québec’s New York contract started 1 June 2026. Churchill Falls remains the largest interprovincial path (5,428 MW today). The 17 August 2026 DCIA terminates and replaces the 1969 contract, locks 6,915 MW firm to 2077 at 6¢/kWh, and adds Gull Island (2,700 MW, target 2036–37) plus Churchill Falls upgrades — agreed, not built.
| Path | MW → | MW ← | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario – Quebec | 1,970 | 1,970 | interprovincial |
| Quebec – US (NYISO, existing) | 1,999 | 1,999 | international |
| Quebec (Hertel) – New York City (CHPE) · Commercial operation 13 May 2026. HQ–NYSERDA contract started 1 June 2026. | 1,250 | 0 | international |
| Quebec – US (ISO-NE) | 2,270 | 2,170 | international |
| Quebec – New Brunswick | 1,029 | 785 | interprovincial |
| NL (Churchill Falls) – Quebec · 1969 contract; Hydro-Québec takes ~85% of 5,428 MW until 2041. | 5,428 | 0 | interprovincial |
Transfer capability, not average flows. Source: NRCan Powering Canada Strong, May 2026, Figure 5.
There is no wholesale market in the Ontario or Alberta sense. Hydro-Québec generates, transmits, distributes, and trades. The Régie sets rates. H.Q. Energy Marketing sells surplus into neighbouring markets. Heritage pool electricity is a political price; new supply will not be.
Ministère de l’Économie, de l’Innovation et de l’Énergie sets policy. The Régie de l’énergie is the economic regulator. Hydro-Québec is the Crown. CER permits international power lines. CNSC has no generating stations here. Indigenous consultation and modern-treaty geography gate northern hydro.
| Operator | Hydro-Québec TransÉnergie (NERC reliability coordinator) |
| Regulator | Régie de l’énergie |
| Transmission | Hydro-Québec TransÉnergie — 34,922 km of transmission |
| Dominant utility | Hydro-Québec |
Hydro-Québec dominates. Independent wind: Boralex, Innergex, Pattern, EDF Renewables, Innu–Boralex at Apuiat. Énergir is the gas distributor, not a power company, but it is the other energy Crown-adjacent incumbent. Trading: H.Q. Energy Marketing.
Operating: Romaine, Apuiat, Hertel–NY / CHPE (1,250 MW). Under construction: Appalaches–Maine. Agreed 17 Aug 2026, not operating: Gull Island, Churchill Falls expansion, 2,000 MW Labrador wind under study. Action Plan 2035 efficiency ($10B) is treated as a resource, not a slogan.
| Plant | Fuel | MW | Status | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert-Bourassa | hydro | 5,616 | operating | Hydro-Québec |
| Romaine complex | hydro | 1,550 | operating | Hydro-Québec |
| Seigneurie de Beaupré | wind | 364 | operating | Boralex / partners |
| Rivière-du-Moulin | wind | 350 | operating | EDF Renewables |
| Apuiat | wind | 200 | operating | Innu / Boralex |
The 1969 grievance is now a signed 2026 replacement — still politics, now with a price (6¢/kWh firm) and a federal cheque. Drought in 2023 showed that a 99% hydro system is a weather system. CHPE is a firm export obligation into a Québec system that is also tightening at home. Indigenous consent on Gull Island and Churchill expansion is a gate, not a ribbon-cutting.
| Metric | 2023 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Generation | 195.51 TWh | CER EF2026 |
| Capacity | 46,900.1 MW | includes storage where reported |
| End-use electricity | 209.5 TWh | converted from PJ |
| Net international exports | +12.1 TWh net export | positive = export |
| Interprovincial in-flows | 35.6 TWh | Quebec’s in-flow is mostly Churchill Falls |