BC · Vertically integrated Crown (plus FortisBC) · 2023
Heritage hydro plus Site C (operating since August 2025) and a trading arm that thinks in WECC. LNG Canada is loading cargoes. 2023’s drought imports were a warning, not a new identity.
| 2023 | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation TWh | 56.2 | 68.8 | 80.8 | 103.5 | 114.0 |
| End-use electricity TWh | 61.4 | 65.6 | 72.4 | 85.5 | 107.8 |
| Capacity GW | 19.0 | 20.2 | 24.0 | 35.0 | 41.0 |
| Gen − end-use TWh | -5.2 | 3.2 | 8.4 | 18.0 | 6.2 |
Same workbook for every jurisdiction. Residual ≠ surplus. Source: CER EF2026.
2023 generation (56 TWh) was a drought year; end-use was 61 TWh and the province imported a net 10 TWh. Site C — 1,100 MW, ~5.1 TWh/year — had all six units in service on 9 August 2025. LNG Canada loaded its first cargo on 30 June 2025; Train 2 was producing by November; 50 cargoes by February 2026. That load is real. BC Hydro’s February 2026 reference load forecast has oil-and-gas, including LNG, as a rising slice. The North Coast Transmission Line remains the wire that has to exist for the next industrial stack. Capital plan is still ~$36 billion (2024–34).
Winter-peaking hydro system. Reservoirs on the Peace and Columbia are the storage. Drought years bite.
BC Hydro stepped (tiered) residential rates, BCUC-regulated. Low-to-mid nationally; well above Quebec, well below Alberta.
BC Hydro: Site C in-service + February 2026 Reference Load Forecast (2026-02)
Site C closed the near-term energy gap that the 2023 drought made visible. The next problem is delivering power to the north coast (North Coast Transmission Line) and serving LNG Canada, possible Phase 2, Cedar, Woodfibre, and mines. Heritage hydro plus Site C is still a winter-peaking reservoir system. 2023 imports were weather, not a new identity — but the load forecast no longer assumes a fat surplus.
Site C: 1,100 MW / ~5.1 TWh/year, all six units in service 9 August 2025. Load forecast is BC Hydro’s February 2026 reference (oil and gas / LNG is a rising slice). Primary document
Heritage Peace and Columbia hydro plus Site C (operating). CER capacity 19.0 GW (2023) → 20.2 GW (2026) → 35.0 GW (2035, Current Measures) — the 2035 step is a model, not a permitted queue. Biomass is a forestry-waste story. IPPs own the non-hydro fleet. Diesel remains in remote communities.
The most US-facing grid in Canada: 3,150 MW to the US, 3,000 MW back; 800 MW to Alberta, 1,000 MW back (NRCan 2026). Powerex, BC Hydro’s trading arm, lives in the Western Interconnection. FortisBC operates 7,300 km in the south. The Columbia River Treaty (1961, under renegotiation) is both a water treaty and a power treaty. Internal priority: Prince George–Terrace transmission to serve the north coast.
| Path | MW → | MW ← | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC – US (WECC) | 3,150 | 3,000 | international |
| BC – Alberta | 800 | 1,000 | interprovincial |
Transfer capability, not average flows. Source: NRCan Powering Canada Strong, May 2026, Figure 5.
Not a market. BC Hydro plans, builds, and serves. BCUC reviews rates and resource plans. Independent power producers sell to BC Hydro under contract. Powerex monetizes flexibility in California and the Pacific Northwest. Heritage hydro is the cheap tranche; Site C and new calls will not be.
Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions. BCUC. BC Hydro. BC Energy Regulator (upstream oil/gas and some LNG, not bulk electricity). CER for international lines. Columbia River Treaty is a federal-provincial-US object.
| Operator | BC Hydro |
| Regulator | British Columbia Utilities Commission |
| Transmission | BC Hydro (≈ 18,000 km) and FortisBC (south) |
| Dominant utility | BC Hydro; FortisBC Electric in the southern interior / Kootenays |
BC Hydro, Powerex, FortisBC Electric, Pacific Northern Gas (gas, not power), Innergex and other IPPs, LNG Canada as a future load (not a generator).
Operating: heritage hydro, Site C, LNG Canada Phase 1 as a load. Announced / MPO: North Coast Transmission Line, LNG Canada Phase 2, Cedar, Woodfibre. Do not draw Phase 2 MW as if Kitimat had four trains.
| Plant | Fuel | MW | Status | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site C | hydro | 1,100 | operating | BC Hydro |
Site C cost and Indigenous opposition. Columbia River Treaty modernization. Whether to build north-coast wires ahead of LNG/mining loads. Drought risk as climate physical risk, made visible in 2023 net imports of 10 TWh.
| Metric | 2023 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Generation | 56.17 TWh | CER EF2026 |
| Capacity | 18,985.8 MW | includes storage where reported |
| End-use electricity | 61.4 TWh | converted from PJ |
| Net international exports | 10.2 TWh net import | positive = export |
| Interprovincial in-flows | 1.7 TWh | Quebec’s in-flow is mostly Churchill Falls |