Canada · Adequacy · v2026.2 · August 2026
CER Energy Future 2026 is the only series that puts every province on one workbook. IESO, AESO, Hydro-Québec, and BC Hydro are the series you actually plan a system with. They will not match. The point of this page is to show the spread, and to keep announced megawatts out of the operating stack.
End-use electricity is always below generation in the national total because of exports and losses. The interesting number is the slope. Current Measures has generation growing ~57% by 2050 and end-use ~44%. Canada Net-zero has generation more than doubling. Capacity grows faster than energy because wind, solar, and storage have lower capacity factors than the hydro and nuclear they sit beside.
CER Current Measures takes national capacity from 159 GW (2023) to 174 GW (2026) to 226 GW (2035) to 308 GW (2050). Net-zero is 402 GW in 2050. Ontario’s IESO is the honest local translation: 39 GW installed at end-2026, 26–29 GW summer-effective. Wind, solar, and hydro on a dry or still day do not equal their sticker.
| CER Current Measures | 2023 | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity (GW) | 159 | 174 | 194 | 226 | 308 |
| Generation (TWh) | 622 | 653 | 704 | 800 | 975 |
| End-use electricity (TWh) | 567 | 569 | 604 | 661 | 814 |
| Generation − end-use (TWh) | 55 | 84 | 100 | 139 | 161 |
The residual is exports + losses − imports, not a surplus you can sell twice. Source: CER EF2026.
Québec uses more electricity than it generates in-province — Churchill Falls is an import. B.C. in 2023 did the same because of drought; Site C (operating 2025) changes the 2026 row. Ontario generates more than it uses and still has a mid-2030s capacity problem because peak is not annual energy. Alberta’s energy balances; its peak and ramps do not.
| 2023 | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation TWh | 195.5 | 213.2 | 222.7 | 221.4 | 257.4 |
| End-use TWh | 209.5 | 205.3 | 211.7 | 223.1 | 254.1 |
| Capacity GW | 46.9 | 48.3 | 51.9 | 54.3 | 68.4 |
| Gen − end-use | -14.0 | 7.9 | 11.1 | -1.7 | 3.2 |
| 2023 | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation TWh | 158.1 | 151.7 | 155.3 | 173.2 | 225.5 |
| End-use TWh | 138.5 | 137.6 | 149.3 | 167.3 | 218.1 |
| Capacity GW | 43.4 | 45.0 | 46.9 | 48.4 | 73.2 |
| Gen − end-use | 19.7 | 14.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 7.5 |
| 2023 | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation TWh | 84.1 | 90.5 | 100.0 | 102.5 | 149.2 |
| End-use TWh | 76.3 | 79.0 | 86.5 | 95.8 | 128.3 |
| Capacity GW | 21.0 | 29.2 | 31.1 | 35.5 | 60.5 |
| Gen − end-use | 7.8 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 20.9 |
| 2023 | 2026 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation TWh | 56.2 | 68.8 | 80.8 | 103.5 | 114.0 |
| End-use TWh | 61.4 | 65.6 | 72.4 | 85.5 | 107.8 |
| Capacity GW | 19.0 | 20.2 | 24.0 | 35.0 | 41.0 |
| Gen − end-use | -5.2 | 3.2 | 8.4 | 18.0 | 6.2 |
Use these for the dossier. Use CER only to compare provinces.
2026 Annual Planning Outlook · 2026-03-20
Ontario is adequate into the early 2030s after storage and gas procurements. The next capacity hole is mid-2030s as gas contracts expire and demand keeps rising. Installed capacity ~39 GW at end-2026 (nuclear 8.5, gas/oil 11.4, hydro 9.3, wind 5.5, solar 2.6, storage 1.2). Summer effective capacity is 26–29 GW in the late 2020s — nameplate is not peak capability. Dual-peaking arrives in the late 2030s in the reference case. Data centres are 8.6% of 2050 demand. Efficiency knocks 8% off 2050 demand, about Toronto’s current annual use.
Net annual energy demand (includes embedded). Not the same as CER end-use electricity. Installed capacity is IESO-visible resources; effective capacity is lower.
2024 Long-term Outlook (latest published; 2026 LTO in preparation) · 2024-05-15
Energy-only market plus a 2024–25 renewable and storage build. Coal finished June 2024. The 2024 LTO Reference Case adds ~26 GW of capacity and retrofits to 2043 (solar, wind, CCGT+CCUS, and 1.8 GW of SMRs only in the last two years of that outlook — announced, not a plant). Near-term adequacy is a winter-peak and flexibility problem, not an annual-energy problem. The 2026 LTO is in stakeholder process and is not published as of August 2026.
Alberta Internal Load (AIL), hourly average and peak. 2025 observed AIL: average 10,316 MW, peak 12,785 MW.
Action Plan 2035 + DCIA (17 Aug 2026) · 2026-08-17
Québec is no longer in structural surplus every year. 2023 drought cut exports. Action Plan 2035 is a build-and-efficiency programme because domestic load (heat, industry, data centres) is catching heritage hydro. The 17 August 2026 Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement replaces the 1969 Churchill Falls contract: 6,915 MW firm to 2077 at 6¢/kWh, Gull Island (2,700 MW, ~12 TWh, target 2036–37), Churchill Falls upgrades (about 1,275 MW on existing units, expansion up to 2,500 MW), and 2,000 MW of Labrador wind under study. New Labrador MW are announced/agreed, not operating. Combined construction value cited at nearly $70B, with up to $10B federal support.
HQ plans in MW and TWh of additional supply, not a published annual demand table comparable to IESO. Québec end-use already exceeds in-province generation because of Churchill Falls in-flows.
Site C in-service + February 2026 Reference Load Forecast · 2026-02
Site C closed the near-term energy gap that the 2023 drought made visible. The next problem is delivering power to the north coast (North Coast Transmission Line) and serving LNG Canada, possible Phase 2, Cedar, Woodfibre, and mines. Heritage hydro plus Site C is still a winter-peaking reservoir system. 2023 imports were weather, not a new identity — but the load forecast no longer assumes a fat surplus.
Site C: 1,100 MW / ~5.1 TWh/year, all six units in service 9 August 2025. Load forecast is BC Hydro’s February 2026 reference (oil and gas / LNG is a rising slice).
| When | What | Status now |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-06 | Alberta coal-fired generation fully phased out (coal-to-gas conversions). | operating |
| 2024-12 | Pickering A retired. Pickering B refurbishment is the remaining Pickering question. | retired |
| 2025-06-30 | LNG Canada first cargo from Kitimat. Train 2 producing November 2025. 50 cargoes by February 2026. | operating |
| 2025-08-09 | Site C, all six units in service. 1,100 MW / ~5.1 TWh. | operating |
| 2026-02 | Darlington Unit 4 returned from refurbishment ahead of schedule. Federal EV Availability Standard repealed (will land in IESO 2027 APO). | operating |
| 2026-03-20 | IESO 2026 APO: +65% energy by 2050 (reference); capacity hole delayed to mid-2030s. | announced |
| 2026-03/04 | Darlington SMR: CNSC cleared reactor-building foundation hold point; first BWRX-300 is under construction, not a paper plant. | under construction |
| 2026-05/06 | Champlain Hudson Power Express / Hertel–New York, 1,250 MW, in commercial operation. Hydro-Québec contract with New York began 1 June 2026. | operating |
| 2026-08-17 | Hydro-Québec / NL Hydro Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement replaces the 1969 Churchill Falls contract. 6,915 MW firm to 2077. Gull Island and CF expansion remain to be built. | announced |